Nova Scotia Cannabis Market Analysis: More Stores, Similar Capture to Quebec
Nova Scotia runs the same structure as Quebec: the Nova Scotia Liquor Corporation (NSLC) controls recreational cannabis retail in the province. In fiscal 2025-26 (year ended March 31, 2026) it sold $138.8 million of cannabis through 84 locations, after adding cannabis to 33 existing liquor stores in the fourth quarter. NSLC's own business plan forecasts about 21,400 kg (on a kilogram basis it doesn't define), roughly 36% of this analysis's modeled demand baseline. That is almost exactly Quebec's 35.5% on the same fiscal year, with four to six times Quebec's store density, depending on whether the fourth-quarter store additions are counted. The most visible difference is revenue per gram: Nova Scotia's sales per reported gram run about 30% above Quebec's.
Market Overview
The Cannabis Control Act, in force since 2018, gives NSLC control of recreational cannabis retail. Adults 19 and older buy in NSLC stores or online at mynslc.com, which since February 2026 sells alcohol and cannabis in a single transaction. In April 2025 the province changed its regulations to let Mi'kmaw communities enter agreements with NSLC to open NSLC-regulated cannabis stores on reserve.
Current State
Fiscal 2025-26 cannabis sales were $138,830,896, up 9.3% from $127,060,874. Transactions rose 4% and the average basket rose 5% to $39.50. Nova Scotia-produced cannabis accounted for $39.9 million, or 28.7% of cannabis sales. NSLC's year-end release gives no cannabis category breakdown.
Access is the main change. NSLC added cannabis to 33 existing liquor stores in the fourth quarter, bringing its cannabis locations to 84, and reached 86 by the first quarter of fiscal 2026-27 (April to June 2026), when cannabis sales were $36.8 million, up 11.2%. NSLC attributes that growth to more transactions and expanded access.
Total Addressable Market and Capture
Nova Scotia's population was 1,095,157 on July 1, 2025, as revised by Statistics Canada, with a legal purchase age of 19. Statistics Canada's single-year age estimates put 905,202 residents at 19 or older. At this framework's standard 18% participation and 1.0 g/day assumptions, modeled annual demand comes to roughly 59,500 kg.
NSLC publishes cannabis volume in its 2026-27 business plan: 19,513 kg actual for fiscal 2024-25, 21,419 kg forecast for 2025-26, and 22,768 kg budgeted for 2026-27. The year-end release doesn't report volume, and the plan doesn't define its kilogram basis, so this analysis treats it as dried-cannabis equivalent like the other provinces, which remains an assumption.
On the 21,419 kg forecast, Nova Scotia works out to roughly 36% of modeled demand and 19.6 grams per resident. Fiscal 2024-25's actual volume gives about 33%, and NSLC's budgeted 2026-27 volume would equal about 38% of the same baseline. As in Alberta, legal home cultivation (up to four plants per household) and the federal medical channel sit outside NSLC's volume, so the ratio understates total legal supply. Store density is 9.3 locations per 100,000 adults at year-end (84 locations), but NSLC had 51 locations (5.6 per 100,000) before the 33 additions in the fourth quarter, so for most of the year Nova Scotia's density was closer to four times Quebec's than six.
Price
NSLC's year-end release reports an average price of $5.70 per gram of cannabis, against the $5.83 it reported for 2024-25. NSLC's audited 2024-25 financial statements report revenue exclusive of sales tax. Dividing the business plan's sales by its kilograms gives about $6.39 per gram for 2025-26 (forecast sales over forecast kilograms) and $6.51 for 2024-25, about 12% above the reported price in both years. NSLC doesn't define its price metric, which may cover a different product set or weighting.
SQDC's 2025-26 sales of $809.5 million over 165,169 kg work out to $4.90 per gram before tax, and SQDC reports $5.63 with taxes. Nova Scotia's sales per reported gram therefore run about 30% above Quebec's. Product mix and kilogram conversion differ between the two, so this is a difference in revenue per reported gram, not a like-for-like price comparison. At roughly US$4.00 to US$4.60, Nova Scotia's price is above the averages in the mature US markets in this series, though those are flower averages and not directly comparable.
Enforcement
Nova Scotia's enforcement push is recent. In December 2025 the attorney general directed all police agencies in the province to intensify enforcement against illegal cannabis operations and report back. Bill 200 followed in February, passed in April, and was proclaimed June 25, with fines of $5,000 to $25,000 for individuals and $15,000 to $50,000 for businesses selling illegally, new offences for landlords and for advertising illegal sales, and authority for peace officers such as conservation officers to enforce the act alongside police. The RCMP said it charged 21 people with more than 50 offences after searching 13 unlicensed storefronts in a 2025 operation.
The push is contested. The province says unlicensed cannabis sales are illegal, while Mi'kmaw leaders and others cite Aboriginal and treaty rights, and those arguments are being made in court. CTV reported in June that the government can't determine how much revenue the underground market takes. The sales releases don't isolate enforcement's effect from the effect of added access.
The Comparison That Matters
| Market | Model | Reporting period | Legal age | Sales per gram, before tax (CAD)* | Grams per resident | Framework capture | Stores per 100k adults (year-end)† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Brunswick | Public stores + authorized private retail | FY2025-26 | 19 | $6.05 | 17.6 | ~33% | 6.2 |
| Quebec | Government monopoly | FY2025-26 | 21 | $4.90 | 18.3 | ~35.5% | 1.6 |
| Nova Scotia | Government monopoly | FY2025-26 (forecast volume) | 19 | ~$6.39 | 19.6 | ~36% | 9.3 |
| Ontario | Private retail + govt online | Calendar 2025 | 19 | N/A | 27.2 | ~51% | 13.5 |
| BC | Public + private retail | FY2025-26 | 19 | N/A | 28.1 | ~51.5% | 11.8 |
| Alberta | Private retail | FY2024-25 | 18 | N/A | 36.6 | ~72% | 18.5 |
*Sales divided by reported kilograms (Nova Scotia: forecast sales over forecast kilograms; New Brunswick: net sales after discounts, with HST assumed excluded because CNB doesn't state its treatment); Quebec and Nova Scotia figures exclude sales tax. Volume bases differ: wholesale distribution (Alberta, BC), authorized-store sales (Ontario), retailer volume (Quebec, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick). †New Brunswick counts 44 corporate and private stores at year-end; including eight Farmgate outlets it is 7.3.
Ranked by capture, the six provinces are only loosely ranked by store density. The three lowest-capture provinces, New Brunswick, Quebec and Nova Scotia, are within about three points of each other on capture while density runs from 1.6 to 9.3; above them, density rises with capture except that BC and Ontario swap places. Nova Scotia sits closer to BC than to Quebec on density, with capture at Quebec's level. Price and legal age differ too, so the comparison can't isolate what causes the pattern.
The Bottom Line
Nova Scotia's monopoly captures about as much as Quebec's, with four to six times the store density, depending on whether the fourth-quarter additions are counted. The most visible difference between them is revenue per reported gram, about 30% higher in Nova Scotia. That is consistent with access helping without offsetting a higher price, though this comparison can't confirm it. NSLC's budgeted 2026-27 volume would equal about 38% of this analysis's baseline, and 33 of its 84 locations are less than a year old; the annual results can't yet show what those additions do over a full year.
This analysis applies the Dan K Reports Cannabis Market Framework. For methodology, assumptions, and the complete state-by-state comparison, see the framework documentation.