New Brunswick Cannabis Market Analysis: Mid-Density, Capture Near Quebec and Nova Scotia
New Brunswick's cannabis system is government-led: at year-end, Cannabis NB (CNB) operated 32 stores alongside 12 private retailers and eight Farmgate producer outlets, 52 locations in 31 communities. In fiscal 2025-26 (52 weeks ended March 29, 2026) CNB reported $101.0 million in sales before discounts and 15,376 kg of dried flower equivalent (DFE), roughly 33% of this analysis's modeled demand baseline. That is within about three points of Quebec's 35.5% and Nova Scotia's 36% (which rests on a forecast volume), even though New Brunswick's 6.2 stores per 100,000 adults sit between Quebec's 1.6 and Nova Scotia's 9.3. Volume rose 6.9% while sales before discounts were flat, and concentrates supplied more than all of the growth.
Market Overview
CNB reports 92.7% of its sales through its own stores, 7.0% through private retail and 0.3% online. Licensed producers can also sell product grown, produced and packaged on site through the Farmgate program, launched in 2021. The province's rules set the legal age at 19 and allow up to four plants at a primary residence.
Current State
Fiscal 2025-26 total sales were $101.0 million, flat against the prior year. CNB's statements deduct $8.0 million in discounts, which the report doesn't define, leaving net sales of $93.0 million, up 2.0% (discounts were $9.8 million the year before). Volume rose 6.9%, from 14,387 kg to 15,376 kg DFE. Concentrates grew 26.3% (4,234 kg to 5,349 kg) while dried flower fell 2.0% (8,405 kg to 8,237 kg), so concentrates added 1,115 kg against a net gain of 989 kg.
The network grew by eight locations, from 44 at the end of 2024-25 to 52: corporate stores rose from 27 to 32, private retailers from 10 to 12 and Farmgate outlets from seven to eight. CNB's report cites four new private stores against that net gain of two and doesn't explain the difference, and it gives no opening dates. CNB's March 3, 2026 release counted 11 private retailers, while the annual report's year-end list names 12, which this analysis uses.
Total Addressable Market and Capture
New Brunswick's population was about 874,700 on July 1, 2025, as revised by Statistics Canada in September 2026, with a legal purchase age of 19. Applying the 81.7% share aged 19 or older in Statistics Canada's earlier age-group estimates gives roughly 714,600 adults, and each point of difference in that share moves capture by about 0.4 point. At this framework's standard 18% participation and 1.0 g/day assumptions, modeled annual demand comes to roughly 47,000 kg.
CNB's 15,376 kg works out to roughly 33% of modeled demand and 17.6 grams per resident. The prior year's 14,387 kg equals about 31% of the same baseline. As in the other provinces in this series, legal home cultivation and the federal medical channel sit outside CNB's volume, so the ratio understates total legal supply.
CNB's sales breakdown lists in-store, private retail and online channels with no Farmgate line, and the report doesn't say whether Farmgate sales are included, so the table counts the 44 corporate and private stores. That gives 6.2 stores per 100,000 adults at year-end (7.3 with the eight Farmgate outlets), up from 5.2 on 37 stores a year earlier on the same adult count. Capture rose about two points over the same period, but stores opened at different points in the year, so the effect of the additions can't be isolated.
Price
CNB doesn't report an average price per gram. Net sales divided by DFE kilograms gives $6.05 per reported gram, down 4.6% from $6.34 in 2024-25; before discounts the figures are $6.57 and $7.02. Total sales include $2.8 million of accessories that carry no DFE volume, and discounts aren't allocated by category, so this is a rough ratio. CNB's statements don't state their treatment of HST, so this analysis assumes revenue excludes it, as is typical under IFRS.
Before discounts, concentrate sales rose 5.8% on a 26.3% rise in DFE kilograms, so revenue per DFE gram in that category fell about 16%, from $7.99 to $6.69. The report doesn't say whether that reflects lower prices, a shift toward products with a higher dried-equivalent conversion, or both.
SQDC's 2025-26 sales work out to $4.90 per gram before tax, so New Brunswick's $6.05 is about 23% higher, and about 5% below Nova Scotia's roughly $6.39. Product mix and kilogram conversion differ across all three, so these are differences in revenue per reported gram, not like-for-like prices.
Product Selection
CNB's annual report (pages 6 and 7) counts 1,386 products by province of origin, 373 of them (27%) from New Brunswick licensed producers. CNB says preferences are moving toward more convenient, higher-potency products and its category team ran a SKU rationalization this year; that is consistent with the shift from flower to concentrates, though the report doesn't link the two.
Enforcement
Bill 29, which received Royal Assent on June 7, 2024, amended the Cannabis Control Act to give inspectors peace officer powers, including buying and sampling suspected cannabis and seizing evidence, and to make landlords who knowingly permit illegal sales liable, with a $5,000 minimum fine for that offence, subject to a due-diligence defence. The bill also bars inspectors from entering a private dwelling without the owner's or occupant's consent or an entry warrant. In August 2024, New Brunswick Justice and Public Safety peace officers seized 432 kg of dried cannabis in Moncton that the province believed was bound for more than 30 unlicensed dispensaries in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Quebec.
An unlicensed Moncton store was closed in April 2026, and CTV reported about 30 people protesting outside a provincial Justice and Public Safety office on April 8. CNB's report lists reducing the unregulated market as part of its mandate but doesn't size that market.
The Comparison That Matters
| Market | Model | Reporting period | Legal age | Sales per gram, before tax (CAD)* | Grams per resident | Framework capture | Stores per 100k adults (year-end)† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Brunswick | Public stores + authorized private retail | FY2025-26 | 19 | $6.05 | 17.6 | ~33% | 6.2 |
| Quebec | Government monopoly | FY2025-26 | 21 | $4.90 | 18.3 | ~35.5% | 1.6 |
| Nova Scotia | Government monopoly | FY2025-26 (forecast volume) | 19 | ~$6.39 | 19.6 | ~36% | 9.3 |
| Ontario | Private retail + govt online | Calendar 2025 | 19 | N/A | 27.2 | ~51% | 13.5 |
| BC | Public + private retail | FY2025-26 | 19 | N/A | 28.1 | ~51.5% | 11.8 |
| Alberta | Private retail | FY2024-25 | 18 | N/A | 36.6 | ~72% | 18.5 |
*Sales divided by reported kilograms (Nova Scotia: forecast sales over forecast kilograms; New Brunswick: net sales after discounts, with HST assumed excluded because CNB doesn't state its treatment). Volume bases differ: wholesale distribution (Alberta, BC), authorized-store sales (Ontario), retailer volume (Quebec, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick). †New Brunswick counts 44 corporate and private stores; including eight Farmgate outlets it is 7.3.
On this framework and the reporting periods shown, New Brunswick has the lowest modeled capture of the six, at about 33%, just under Quebec and Nova Scotia and about 18 points below Ontario and BC. By density it is second lowest. Among the three provinces at the low end, density runs from 1.6 to 9.3, nearly six-fold, while capture stays within roughly three points. Legal age, price and product mix differ too, so the comparison can't isolate what causes the pattern.
The Bottom Line
New Brunswick captures roughly a third of modeled demand, within about three points of Quebec and Nova Scotia despite store density between theirs. Within the year, volume rose 6.9% as the corporate and private store count went from 37 to 44, revenue per reported gram fell, and concentrates, not flower, supplied the growth. Capture and density moved together inside New Brunswick over the year but not across the three provinces with government-run retail, and because stores opened at different points in the year, the next annual report will be the first to show a full year of the additions.
This analysis applies the Dan K Reports Cannabis Market Framework. For methodology, assumptions, and the complete state-by-state comparison, see the framework documentation.