About Dan K Reports
Dan K Reports is an analytical and policy research hub for cannabis markets, founded by Daniel Kief.
The platform combines empirical market research with practical tools for investors, policymakers, and industry stakeholders seeking data-driven insights into regulatory outcomes and market performance.
Research Contributions
Consumption Baseline Analysis Through analysis of government-reported dispensary sales and registered user populations, I've established that actual cannabis consumption averages ~1.0 grams per day (flower-equivalent), not the 1.5g/day assumptions used by most industry analysts.
This finding fundamentally changes Total Addressable Market (TAM) calculations and explains why demand forecasts consistently overestimate market size by 30-50%.
Validated across Florida medical program data (929K patients, 447M grams annually), Oregon, Colorado, Michigan, Illinois, Washington, and Quebec markets.
(Black Market Death Equation - BMDE) The ΔU framework quantifies legal market adoption based on five regulatory variables: pricing differential, supply density, product selection, regulatory friction, and enforcement intensity.
ΔU = 4(-g) + D + 1.2S + F + 0.6E
Currently validated across 7 U.S. jurisdictions, the model predicts legal market share by measuring consumer utility shifts from illicit to legal channels.
Tools & Resources
Market Optimization Calculator - Quantifies regulatory policy impact on legal cannabis market adoption using the Black Market Death Equation (BDME). Input variables: tax rates (excise, sales, local), licensing structure, enforcement intensity, and product restrictions. Outputs: predicted legal market capture rate, illicit market displacement timeline, and revenue projections.
Cannabis Price Tracker - Real-time flower pricing across 8 U.S. legal markets (California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Oregon) with monthly updates from official state regulatory agencies. Tracks median/average retail prices per gram with direct links to government data sources. Provides state-by-state price analysis, market trend insights, and interactive price visualization. Identifies lowest-cost markets ($1.40-$3.33/g) vs. high-cost emerging markets ($6.25-$8.28/g). Essential resource for understanding regional cannabis pricing dynamics and regulatory impact on consumer costs.
Legislation Tracker - Real-time tracking of cannabis policy developments across all 50 states and federal level using LegiScan API integration. Currently monitoring 483 active bills with daily updates. Filters policy-relevant legislation (taxation, licensing, enforcement, market structure) while excluding ceremonial resolutions. Future integration planned with BMDE Framework for regulatory impact analysis.
MSO/LP Stock Screener - Analyzes 24 cannabis operators (14 U.S. MSOs, 10 Canadian LPs) with $13.5B combined market cap. Filters by 280E tax exposure level, company type, and market size. Displays revenue, gross margins, EBITDA margins, debt levels, and estimated annual 280E tax burden ($608M industry-wide). Unique feature: State Footprint & BMDE Analysis shows each operator's presence across U.S. markets with CBDT Framework scores (Adoption Unit ratings, predicted legal market capture %, revenue concentration by state). Identifies operators positioned in high-quality regulatory environments vs. those exposed to broken markets. Calculates upside potential from 280E repeal and SAFE Banking Act passage. Stock prices reflect prior day's close. Updated daily.
The Data
All research uses verifiable government sources: state regulatory agency reports, official sales data, dispensary records. Datasets published via Harvard Dataverse with complete methodology documentation. Peer review in progress through SSRN.
Mission
Replace speculation with data. Provide policymakers, investors, and industry stakeholders with empirical tools for understanding cannabis market dynamics and regulatory outcomes.